Scientology statistics update
Summary
1) Purpose
2) Method
3) Flag (clears, OT6, OT7, SNCC, L’s)
4) Clear statistics
5) More data is welcome
6) Conclusion
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1) Purpose
In order to know something, we need both qualitative and quantitative data. Concerning the CoS, the quantitative data are its statistics.
Unfortunately the Church is not publishing currently any statistic.
That is an oddity. The scientologists, public and staff, have the right to know the condition of their group, as the shareholders of a company.
Myself, as a former member, I want to know where the ship is going. I am no more on the service lines, but I would be happy if the CoS was succeeding in making OTs. I did contribute to that goal for many years, and it would be a good thing to know that my contribution was useful.
But I was disagreeing on several points, such as the high prices and the Golden Age of Tech, which in my opinion are dooming the Church. In order to check if I was right, I began to build the statistics of the CoS. I am interested now in knowing the truth.
I have already posted some numbers last year. Now I have the numbers for 2000, so that I am posting updated numbers.
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2) Method
The purpose of the CoS is theoretically to produce clears and OTs (or pre OTs). So that the significant statistics are the number of clears and pre OTs produced each year.
The total number of clears was reported in the past from time to time, so that it is possible to get a graph for the years from 1966 to 1996.
Concerning the OT levels, Flag is publishing in the Source magazine the names of the people attesting OT levels, so that I counted their number so as to obtain the total number for each year. The OT6 stat is significant, as it is the highest level currently attested within the church and as it is delivered only at Flag, so that the numbers are more easy to collect.
Another source of data is the Solo Nots newsletter.
It has to be noted that since 1998, the statistical numbers are banned from the scientology publications. There are no more reports about the number of clears and OTs for 1999 and 2000.
=============================================================3) The Flag Service Org
3-1) Yearly statistic --------------------- These numbers are extracted from Source, the magazine of the Flag Land Base. There are from 4 to 6 issues a year.
Clear OT6 OT7 SNCC L’s -------------------------------- 1987 * 198 331 205 - 692 1991 276 260 125 - 725 1992 36 132 21 - 480 1993 196 129 31 - 603 1994 141 101 81 - 576 1995 123 112 41 - 591 1996 * 115 78 16 - 375 1997 78 39 - 503 220 1998 57 86 - 536 159 1999 87 99 - 222 90 2000 49 43 - 56 133 --------------------------------
Notes:
a) For 1987, there is one missing source magazine in my collection on a total of 6 for the year, so that I multiplied the raw number by 1.2 so as to attribute an average value to the missing issue.
b) Similarly, for 1996, I multiplied my raw total by 1.25.
c) SNCC means Solo Nots Certainty Course.
3-2) Total number for OT6 to OT8 -------------------------------- OT6 completions:
3508 in December 2000 (By adding the number of people having completed OT6 between 1998 and 2000 to the number of OT7).
OT7 completions or in progress:
3280 in September 1997 (Solo Nots newsletter volume 1 issue 5).
OT8 completions:
1157 in 1993 (Auditor Worldwide #266).
3-3) Comments:
-------------- 1) There is a brutal drop in 1997. That comes just after the release of the Golden Age of Tech. That is also coincident with the expansion of the free zone and of the critic sites on the Internet, so that both hypothesis can be considered to explain that drop.
2) From 1987 to 2000, the yearly production of OT6 has been divided by 7.
3) From 1987 to 1996, the yearly production of OT7 has been divided by 12. Currently there are no more OT7 completions.
4) The total number of SNCC completions is 1317. Compared to the total number of people having attested OT6 (3508), this means that 2191 OT6 and above did not comply with the retread order, and that they are probably out of the lines. This means also that the CoS has lost 2/3 of his top level members.
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4) Clear statistics
(from several posts on ACT, and from my own archives)
Total number of clears:
1 Feb 66 (John McMaster clear number) 131 1967 (Auditor worldwide #19) 4000 Jul 74 5183 Feb 76 (Ted Crammer clear number) 5943 Mar 77 (Auditor Europe/Africa #130) 8300 Oct 78 21300 Oct 79 32311 1983 (Auditor Europe/Africa #188) 38000 Dec 84 48253 End 93 (Auditor Worldwide #268) 49236 Dec 94 (Auditor Worldwide #277) 49607 Dec 95 (Auditor UK #287) 49991 Dec 96 (Auditor UK #294) >50000 1997 (Auditor EU #281)
>50000 1998 (Auditor EU #284)
After that, the auditor magazine is no more giving the total number of clears.
Comments:
--------- For the years preceding the high prices, there was an exponential curve:
130 new clears for 1967 552 new clears/year from 1967 to 1974 647 new clears/year from 1974 to 1977 2357 new clears for 1978 13000 new clears for 1979
After that, the curve becomes logarithmic:
5689 new clears for 1984 1139 new clears/year from 1985 to 1993 983 new clears for 1994 371 new clears for 1995 344 new clears for 1996
It seems that when LRH disappeared in 1980 or 82, the scientology was knowing an exponential expansion.
Shortly after that, it was efficiently muzzled.
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5) More data is welcome
If somebody has these numbers, I would be interested by the numbers and statistics of people having completed the old OT levels. It would be interesting to know the condition of the OT band production before the departure of LRH.
Also I do not have the following issues of the source magazine: 1 to 49, 52, 56, 63 to 68, 71, 100. Perhaps somebody has the patience to count the attest numbers for these issues?
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6) Conclusion
We can see clearly that the high prices coincide with a huge drop in the production of clears, and that the Golden Age of Tech marks also the beginning of a huge crash at the top of the bridge. The Golden Age of Tech was also the main reason of my own departure.
To be more accurate, I should say: there are these coincidences; and there is a probability of relation from cause to effect, which is not absolutely proved; just highly probable.
In my opinion, if the church wants to recover, the only solution is: go back to normal prices, and go back to the training practices of the old days, when the statistics were exponential.
But probably that will not occur. Experience shows that when scientologists become aware of this condition, they are expelled from the church, even high rank executives or OT7s.
It would be interesting to have similar statistics for the free zone:
is the production of the free zone currently higher than the production of the CoS?
I wonder if the practitioners or groups of the free zone would agree to publish their statistics?
Curiosus
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