cultxpt@primenet.com (Jeff Jacobsen) wrote in message news:<3b9276d5.85971002@news.primenet.com>...

> These are the years that the Church of Scientology has claimed 8 million
> members: 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000,
> 2001 (talk about expansion!!).
<

> Below are some quotes to help us find out about this 8 million figure:
[snip] The only truly reliable data on the number of practising Scientologists is that recorded in official censuses. Only two countries are known to have counted Scientologists. In Australia in 1996, 1488 Scientologists were recorded (see http://www.suburbia.net/~fun/scn/gov/census-1996.html). This represents 0.00767% of the population, which currently stands at 19,401,000 people. We also know that the 1996 New Zealand census recorded 213 Scientologists (see http://www.suburbia.net/~fun/scn/gov/nz-census.html), or 0.00553% of the population - less than the number of Satanists. Unless Australia and NZ are somehow atypical, and there's no reason why they should be considering that the CoS has been active in both countries since the 1960s, this suggests that the typical mean figure should be around 0.0066%. Let's try estimating the number of Scientologists elsewhere in the world, using this 0.0066% figure:

Country | Population | Scnists | % of pop ==================================================== Australia | 19,401,000 | 1,488 | 0.00767 New Zealand | 3,852,881 | 213 | 0.00553 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ----------- Canada | 30,750,100 | 2,029 * France | 60,186,184 | 3,973 * Germany | 82,163,000 | 5,423 * Italy | 57,634,327 | 3,804 * Norway | 4,503,000 | 297 * Sweden | 8,882,792 | 586 * United Kingdom | 55,755,000 | 3,680 * United States | 285,000,000 | 18,810 * (*=estimate) How does this compare with reality? The German figure looks to be about right. According to the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, there are about 5,000-6,000 Scientologists in Germany.

The UK figure is probably about right although it may be a slight underestimate, as it doesn't take account of the large number of foreign Scientologists at Saint Hill. We should have a clearer idea when the UK Census 2001 data, which included religious affiliation for the first time, are released in about a year's time. The US figure is certainly on the low side, as the organisation has far greater strength and relative respectability there than anywhere else in the world. If we double and round the figure to reflect this factor, we get a US Scientologist population of about 40,000. Could anyone from Canada, France, Italy, Norway or Sweden comment on the estimates for those countries?

The US figure certainly sounds about right when you consider the CoS' annual income from its US entities, declared to be $300m per year in 1993 - this theoretically equates to $7,500 per member, although much of this will come through WISE, Narconon and other front groups. The income of COSRECI (the CoS entity which owns and runs the UK orgs) perhaps offers a clearer view of income from members, as there appears to be little WISE or Narconon activity in this country. It declared an income of £5,678,380 in 1995 - divided between an estimated 3,680 members this equals about £1,543 ($2,240) per person. If the CoS really had 200,000 members in the UK as it claims, its income would be far greater. If each of those supposed members gave just £500 - the cost of a single lower-level course, excluding auditing - per year, it would be making £100 million pounds per year. With 8 million members "donating" that much, it would be making over £4 ($5.8) *billion* per year. Clearly it isn't, so there's no way that there can be that many members.

Another thing to think about is where the missing millions are supposed to be. Outside of Europe and North America, Scientology has been singularly unsuccessful. There are large areas of the world where its expansion is severely checked or even prevented completely by local factors. In the former Soviet countries, for instance, the Orthodox Church has been very successful in restricting the activity of Scientology and other foreign "cults" (even including the Catholic Church). The Islamic countries completely ban proselytising on pain of death. Isn't it strange how Scientology never seems to complain about "anti-religious bigotry" in Saudi Arabia or Iran?

But the biggest hindrance to Scientology's growth is the fact that it is so demanding on its members, particularly financially. The vast majority of the world's population (in South America, Africa and Asia) simply could not afford Scientology. It is no coincidence that the CoS's recruitment efforts have targeted officials and politicians in those countries; ordinary people simply do not have enough time or cash to spare. In fact, if someone was to plot a correlation between the number of Scientologists and the average income in countries around the world, I'm pretty sure that you would find a direct relationship. The US would come out at the top simply because Americans have more disposable cash than anyone else in the world.

Likewise Germany would come out top in Europe because the Germans are the richest people in Europe. Another complicating factor is that it depends crucially on written materials, to a far greater extent than mainstream belief systems. It has enormous overheads in terms of bureaucracy and the need to translate written materials into local languages.

This suggests to me that Scientology will reach - if it has not already done so - a natural limit to its growth. It is most limited by its members' liquidity and literacy. Where both factors are in greatest supply (i.e. western Europe and north America) it will do best; where they are short it will do badly or not at all. But paradoxically, its relative success here is actually also a hindrance in the long term.

Scientology continually poisons the well from which it draws its customers. We have seen, many times on ARS, people "routing out" of Scientology because they felt badly treated, or who decided that it wasn't for them or that it was ineffective, and wanted their money back. We have also seen, many times, how such people have often been mistreated and how they have to jump through numerous lengthy bureaucratic hoops in order to get their money back. The fact is that Scientology treats its customers badly. It is very efficiently set up to get people in and part them from their money as quickly as possible, but very bad at providing decent customer service or dealing satisfactorily with unhappy customers. The result is a steadily growing pool of people who have had bad experiences with CoS. They will, of course, tell other people - family, friends, the media - about their experiences and the CoS will attract a smelly reputation in the process.

This is not just a theoretical possibility: it is actually happening.

Virtually every major "flap" Scientology has experienced in the last 35 years has been as a result of public complaints. The problems of the 1960s all had their roots in this. In Australia, Melbourne's "Truth" newspaper campaigned on behalf of ex-Scientologists who felt that they had been exploited; the result was the Anderson inquiry. In Britain, the affair of a mentally disturbed Scientologist, Karen Henslow, was taken up by the Daily Mail after her mother brought it into the limelight; the result was the Foster inquiry and the 12-year ban on Scientologist immigration into the UK. In New Zealand, complaints from the relatives of Scientologists made to "disconnect"

from their families prompted the establishment of an official inquiry there too. More recent cases, such as Lisa McPherson's, continue the trend. It will not stop, simply because of Scientology's flaws in the way it manages its own people.

| Chris Owen - ronthewarhero@OISPAMNOyahoo.co.uk | |---------------------------------------------------------------| | THE TRUTH ABOUT L. RON HUBBARD AND THE UNITED STATES NAVY | | http://www.ronthewarhero.org |



From: LronsScam <not@here.now>
Subject: Re: 8 million vs. 50,000 members
Date: 3 Sep 2001 21:07:29 GMT
Message-ID: <9n0reh$u82$0@216.155.33.123>
SNIP Don't know if you missed this. France might know a thing or two as to how much money Scn'gy is making annually.

Excerpt from:

http://groups.google.com/groups?q=france+1.5+billion+group:alt.religion.scien tology&hl=en&safe=off&scoring=r&rnum=1&selm=89h195%2424fm%40drn.newsguy.com "All directives, everything we did, was ordered by missionaries from the United States," said Vasquez, the former member. "Every Thursday, we collected the money from all over Europe and sent it to the United States. Copenhagen site of Scientology's European headquarters obeyed; everything they did was decided by the Americans."

Barthelemy, the government panel's secretary-general, said former Scientologists have told French authorities that information collected by the church, including potentially embarrassing or compromising data gleaned from questionnaires and interviews with members, is forwarded to the U.S.

Local Annual Revenue Said to Be $ 9.2 Million In June, a French parliamentary commission investigating the finances of religious groups classified here as sects estimated Scientology's annual revenue in France at more than $ 9.2 million, and worldwide at between $ 1.5 billion and $ 3 billion.

From: stresscentre@aol.com (StressCentre)
Date: 04 Sep 2001 00:47:20 GMT
Subject: Re: 8 million vs. 50,000 members
Message-ID: <20010903204720.21490.00006005@mb-mr.aol.com>
>The only truly reliable data on the number of practising
>Scientologists is that recorded in official censuses. Only two
>countries are known to have counted Scientologists. In Australia in
>1996, 1488 Scientologists were recorded (see
>http://www.suburbia.net/~fun/scn/gov/census-1996.html). This
>represents 0.00767% of the population, which currently stands at
>19,401,000 people. We also know that the 1996 New Zealand census
>recorded 213 Scientologists (see
>http://www.suburbia.net/~fun/scn/gov/nz-census.html), or 0.00553% of
>the population - less than the number of Satanists. Unless Australia
>and NZ are somehow atypical, and there's no reason why they should be
>considering that the CoS has been active in both countries since the
>1960s,
Thankyou for this post, very informative, and gives a great context. I will say something though.

I do believe that Australia and New Zealand would be somewhat atypical. As an Australian, I have to say that the country is absolutely typified by having an acute "sense of bullshit".

If you say "Scientology" to an Australian, all but the tiniest percentage (as you say, less than Satanists) would have a giggle and consider it to be a purely American fantasy, like Jerry Springer, etc.

Granted, Aus has all the first-world ennui which makes cults appealing, and doesn't have a strong religious culture that might criticise a perceived rival, but I would still say that Australian and New Zealand would be pretty atypical.

The fact that Brian Johnstone from the CoS who's been calling me and God knows whoever else is a Canadian is probably indicative.

You can get an Australian to commit to sport, but a mysterious American cult?

Not going to happen.

Finn A McMillan

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